Monday’s Norwegian OBOS-Ligaen Best Bets

Andy

KFUM Oslo vs Skeid

Monday 30th May – 5:00PM KO

The home side are up to 7th place in the table after two consecutive victories. The most recent of which was a 2-1 victory away to Fredrikstad which is quite an impressive result. KFUM are an inconsistent side with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. Their goal difference is exactly level with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded. This team have some impressive underlying offensive metrics averaging 1.65 xG per 90 mins. The goals have been split evenly amongst the team, but Petter Nosakhare Dahl and ex Sandefjord winger Moussa Njie are two players who add some flair to the side. At the other end of the field KFUM have the 4th best xGA per 90 mins (1.13) so have perhaps been unfortunate to concede as many as 13 goals in 8 matches. Goalkeeper Jonas Vatne Brauti who signed from Stabaek during the winter was expected to shine at OBOS level but could do with tightening up a little bit. 

Skeid travel here second bottom of the table with 7 defeats in 8 matches. Their lone victory was against rock bottom Stjørdals-Blink and the newly promoted semi-professional outfit have struggled to adapt to life at this level. Skeid were unfortunate to lose in midweek at home to Sandnes. It looked like they were going to hold on for an unlikely 0-0 draw vs Sandnes but succumbed to a late goal 0-1. Skeid have conceded 16 goals this season and have one of the worst defensive records in the league. Their biggest problem is probably at the other end of the field though and their average xG per game of 0.9 is the 2nd worst in the league. They have scored ten goals but not been creating enough big opportunities. Experienced striker Johnny Buduson is having a decent season at least, scoring 4 goals in 7 appearances. 

Skeid have the lowest reported budget in the entire OBOS-Ligaen. Their resources are limited, and they are one of the favourites for relegation. This is going to be a tough trip for them away vs what is now an established OBOS-Ligaen side who have finished in the top half all the last four seasons. KFUM Oslo should win the game and I think the best bet is to simply take them on the nose to win. The odds are nothing special at 1.50 but they are definitely the better side. Rather than worrying about any handicap or goals bets then this feels like the safest and best option.

Prediction: KFUM Oslo to Win , 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)


Grorud vs Stjørdals-Blink

Monday 30th May – 5:00PM KO

Two poor teams meet in what is a vital clash for both at the bottom of the table. Neither side have a victory this season and a win would certainly be worth its weight in gold. Grorud have at least drawn 5 out of 8 games with the 1-1 away to Stabaek recently probably their most impressive result. They have conceded a lot of goals though, 16 in total and yet to keep a clean sheet. This is backed up by a very poor average xGA per 90 mins (1.75) which is the second worst in the league. Grorud have been a leaky defensive team for quite some time. They conceded the 2nd most goals in OBOS last season. Manager Johan Gjonnes Nilsen has been in charge for 22 matches but kept just one clean sheet in that timespan. His tactics are all over the place varying from 4-4-2 to a three at the back system. Grorud do at least carry a threat and their 11 goals scored are the most of any team in the bottom six. 

Both clubs are semi-professional, and this is a division where the gulf between pro sides can be quite vast. Both should enjoy facing each other on a more level playing field. Stjørdals-Blink travel here with just two points on the board and 6 defeats in their first 8 matches. The club, who are located close to Trondheim in the northern part of Norway only just survived by the skin of their teeth last season in the relegation playoff. They were dealt a massive blow in the winter when they lost manager Tom Dent to Ham Kam. He was one of the key reasons why they survived last season, getting the absolute most out of the players. Blinks were always going to be a major relegation candidate this season. Their underlying metrics are not too bad though. The team, who are now managed by Snorre Lillebo have an average xG per game of 1.35, which is good enough for 8th best in the division. Their xGA is 1.45 per 90 mins which is mid-range. It might be they are underperforming, and an improvement is due soon. Their 17 goals conceded is the worst record in the OBOS Ligaen though.

When two poor teams meet then usually the outcome is a wild sort of match where both teams really fancy the win or a drab 0-0 cautious draw where the quality is low. I don’t think either team can shut the other out and all things point towards goals in this fixture. Defensively, both on the field and in xG terms the numbers are poor. Both attack forces though are serviceable and should be able to find the back of the net. Over 2.5 is definitely a bet to consider at odds of 1.60 but both teams to score is probably a safer selection at an only slightly lower 1.50, this covering the 1-1 draw potential. It would not be a surprise to see this game explode into a wild sort of 2-2 or even a 3-3 type of scoreline because both will really push for the chance to win.

Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)

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