Sunday’s Danish Superliga Best Bets

Andy

Vijle v Sonderjyske

Sunday 1st May – 1:00PM KO

At the bottom end of the table, sorry, at the very bottom of the table you will find the teams that make up this fixture. Vejle (VIJ) are in 11th six points from safety and Sonderjyske (SND) are bottom eleven points from safety. SND are desperate to win but ultimately are only four more points away from having their relegation confirmed. Meanwhile, VIJ may genuinely feel that they have an opportunity to perform a great escape. So because of this and many other reasons  Vejle getting over 1.5 goals against a leaking and sinking SND seems more than likely.

In their last six games SND have conceded over 1.5 goals on five occasions! The side languishing at the bottom of the table have tried their hardest and that has been shown as they have had 16 shots on target in their last three league games but none of it has counted for anything because they can’t stop the goals going into their own net.

Another big reason is the utterly awful away form of SND, all season and across 13 away league matches, not only have SND had an awful goal return of only seven goals, but they have not won a single match outside of their home stadium, you have to feel sorry for their travelling fans.

Meanwhile the home form of VIJ will be frightening for SND. Despite having to play against the best teams in the league, who are now in the Championship split, VIJ have only lost four games at home all season, again that’s in 13 games. Their key to any success this season was to keep a good home record and they have done that, and it could prove crucial at the back end of the season, including by getting a big result against the side bottom of the league.

Finally, the last four VIJ v SND matches which have been played at VIJ home ground have ended with a total of 20 goals with over 4 goals in each match and VIJ getting at least three in each of those. Personally, I can see a repeat of this history on Sunday, I would be surprised is SND get anything out of the game but when you have nothing to lose you can never be sure. That said I can’t see past VIJ scoring less than two goals in this match.

Prediction: Over 1.5 Velje Goals, 1.91 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)


Midtjylland v Copenhagen

Sunday 1st May – 5:00PM KO

Well, this is it. It’s not the be all and end all, but this game could be the match which proves to be the climax of the season. Midtjylland (MID) v Copenhagen (COP) are first and second in the league and after a run of results the gap at the top is now only three points, with MID getting the opportunity to completely close the gap on their title rivals.

MID could not have asked for a better time to play COP. They have lost two of their last three games which equates to their worst league run of form all season. Meanwhile for MID their only two losses in their last 10 games have ironically both been against COP!

The history and form of the two sides both say to me that this is going to be a tense and tight game. In their last 10 games, MID have seen 50% of their matches end with under 2.5 goals and for COP that percentage goes up to 60%. Most of those for COP have come in their last six games where five of those matches have ended with under 2.5 goals. For some reason the strong title favourites only, a few weeks ago have forgotten how to score a goal.

One of the explanations of this poor turn of form has to be pointed at their strikers. Of their last seven goals there have been six different goal scorers. And where one could suggest that means they have goal scorers all over the pitch, what I see, is a team with no direct leader. They don’t have a player to turn to who will win them games and as a result they are having to almost hit and hope.

Another big reason for this bet, between the two best teams in the league, is that all 3 meetings of COP and MID this season have ended 1-0. The last two times going to COP and the first going to MID. Tension is sure to be high going into this match, MID will desperately want to cut down the gap but they will also have in the back of their minds that they do have time. They still have four league games after this one so all they have to do is keep in touching distance and they know they could be in with a chance of pipping COP to the title, especially with the form they are showing.

Neither team can afford to lose and because of that I can’t see either taking too many risks. A tight, low scoring title decider.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.80 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)

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