Tuesday & Thursday’s Paraguayan Primera División Predictions & Best Bets

Andy

Cerro Porteño v General Caballero JLM

Tuesday 21st June -11:30PM KO

Cerro Porteño can’t afford to slip up if they are to remain in the Paraguayan Primera title race, and they return to the Nueva Olla which has been something of a fortress recently. Olimpia are the only side to have scored there in a league game since Sportivo Ameliano on the opening day of the season. That defeat in the superclásico and a goalless draw with Guaireña are the only times they have dropped points at home to date.

The weekend win, another 1-0, over 12 de Octubre saw Alberto Espínola return from injury but he will be unavailable for selection having been sent off in the 78th minute. That means Alan Benitez is likely to fill in the right back slot again. Alfio Oviedo came off the bench to score but he can be expected to start, probably alongside Fernando Romero who also impressed having been substituted on during the latter stages of the game.

General Caballero are on a three-game unbeaten run in all competitions for just the second time this year, the last time they went longer than that without a defeat was the 11-match streak between August and October 2021 in the Intermedia (2nd tier). Luciano Thieler continues to prefer Junior Marabel to Guillermo Hauche as the main striker but they will be without forward Clementino González who received a red card in the previous game. The rojo have won three of their last five away games in the league losing just once on that run (2-1 to Resistencia) and scoring first in four of the games.

It is likely to be another complicated game for the title chasers.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.67 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)

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Sol de América v Libertad

Tuesday 21st June – 11:30PM KO

Last week Sol de América recorded their third successive draw against lowly General Caballero while Libertad coasted to a 2-0 win against Guaireña. The gumarelo have a four point lead with just three games left of the season so in theory could wrap up the title should they win on Tuesday night and Cerro Porteño lose.

Sol de América welcomed back Enrique Borja to the starting XI after an injury layoff and the 27-year-old striker responded with his first goal for the club in their 1-1 draw. It was his first goal since November 2021 and the danzarín’s first in 289 minutes. It is indicative of their season where fixtures involving Sol have only seen an average of 2.11 goals per games, at home that drops even further to 1.89.

In contrast, Libertad haven’t found goals much of a problem with 41 in their 19 games to date, the only time they failed to score in the league this year was against title chasers Cerro Porteño. The previous two games have seen Daniel Garnero use a lot of different players with injury and suspension coming into play in the final stretch of the season. But the strength in depth hasn’t affected them, for example Ramón Martínez scored in the last match against Guaireña in what was his first league start of the year.

Historically this fixture has been positive for the league leaders, they last lost away to Sol de América in the 2019 Apertura. The last five games at the Luis Alfonso Giagni have all been victories for Libertad, a run that is likely to continue.

Prediction: Libertad to Win, 1.67 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)


Nacional v Olimpia

Thursday 23rd June – 00:15PM KO

Both sides head into this fixture having participated in dramatic games for different reasons over the weekend. Nacional conceded twice in stoppage time to throw away a 2-0 lead against Sportivo Ameliano, while Olimpia conceded early on before hitting Resistencia for six.

The Academia have relied heavily on Facundo Bruera who hit a brace in the last game to move joint top in the scoring charts. The Argentinian has opened the scoring eight times, more than any other player in the league, Diego Martínez of Resistencia is next on the list. Their inability to keep cleansheets has meant that Bruera’s individual efforts are often in vain. At home they have won just three times, against Tacuary, Ameliano and Guaireña.

El Decano are on a fabulous run in the league with seven wins from their last nine only losing to the top two Libertad and Cerro Porteño on that run. They have also been free-scoring of late with 14 goals in their last four games, the strikes coming from a range of sources (10 players). Away from home they have won their last two games 4-1 scoring 11 in their last four matches. They’ve only failed to find the net as visitors in the 1-0 defeat to Libertad when they played with 10 men from the 26th minute and a 0-0 with 12 de Octubre when they played a B team due to Libertadores commitments.

BTTS has landed in the last six meetings between these sides and current form suggests the same.

Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.67 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)

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Club Guaraní v Sportivo Ameliano

Thursday 23rd June – 10:00PM KO

Guaraní host Sportivo Ameliano on a strong run of form, winning four of their last five only dropping points to the leaders Libertad. Meanwhile the visitors have won just one of their last eight.

The aurinegro found it hard to compete early in the season, likely suffering an emotional hangover from the incredible way in which they threw away the 2021 Clausura title (conceding twice in stoppage time to ten-man Cerro Porteño). In the first half of the 2022 Apertura they picked up 11 points from 11 games, compared to 17 points in the second half of the season (8 games old). Much of the resurgence has been led by topscorer Fernando Fernández and the leading assister in the league, Josué Colmán.

Ameliano are managed by Humberto Garcia who was known for making his General Díaz side very hard to beat when they were in Primera. But this season he has been unable to stop the flow of goals, the V Azulada have conceded 35 times which is the worst defence in the league. Their seven defeats on the road is also the joint worst along with Tacuary. The only recent glimmer of hope has been Alex Arce’s partnership with veteran striker Pablo Zeballos, the two have combined relatively well ensuring Ameliano often score.  

Prediction: Guarani to Win, 1.75 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)


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