Ons Jabeur v Tatjana Maria
Jabeur is a hot favourite for this one against the surprise package of Wimbledon 2022.
Maria is ranked outside the top 100 yet, at the age of 34, she’s managed to fight her way through the draw to the semi-final stage. It is by far and away her best effort in a Grand Slam tournament.
She’s required the full three sets in every round bar one thus far and there has to be a chance that hurts her in this match against a player who only lost her first set of the tournament in the last round.
And the way Jabeur responded to that moment of adversity was very impressive, winning the second and third sets against Marie Bouzkova for the loss of only two games.
Maria’s mad mix of shots, including her much-talked-about forehand slice, will look to win the day here but Jabeur will be able to fight fire with fire – the variety in her game is arguably even better, or at least the quality of it is.
I’d expect the Tunisian to win this fairly comfortably but with the third seed just 1/9 to win the match, there’s not a great deal of value around.
The straight-sets Jabeur win is at 4/11, a price only really for the big-hitters, so what are the other options?
Well, Jabeur to win under 12.5 games in the match has potential at 4/7.
It’s not hard to see Jabeur winning this comfortably with a scoreline of 6-3 6-3, or something of that ilk. You obviously also get the easy upset win included here.
However, arguably a better bet is to back under 19.5 games.
That takes in similar scorelines, with the exception of 6-4 6-4, and bumps the price up to 8/11.
Elena Rybakina v Simona Halep
Another semi-final, another solid-looking favourite.
Halep, 2/7 to win the match, is that player here – she’s gone through the gears and just seems to be getting better by the round.
Last time out it was Amanda Anisimova who had no answers to her game and if players such as her and Paula Badosa can’t put dents in the 2019 champion’s armour, you have to wonder if Rybakina will go the same way.
The Kazakh stuttered a little against Ajla Tomljanovic on Wednesday before turning things around but a player of Halep’s quality is unlikely to let her off so lightly.
The one thing in Rybakina’s favour is her serve.
It produced 15 aces against Tomljanovic and she now has a tournament-leading 44 in total.
A look at the head-to-head record shows Halep leading 2-1, although it’s 2-0 in completed matches with Rybakina’s win coming via way of injury retirement.
Delve deeper and you see that the pair’s last meeting, at the 2021 US Open, saw Rybakina serve 14 aces so it’s clear that Halep may have a few problems on return.
With this in mind, a look at the tie-break markets looks in order.
There’s some possible value here with 5/1 on offer about a first-set breaker and 13/2 about one occurring in the second set.
That US Open clash saw a tie-break in the opening set, while the previous meeting (in Dubai in 2020) so the match decided by a final-set breaker.
Backing both options to small stakes therefore looks to have potential but the main bet should be for Halep to win in straights at 4/5.
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How to watch Wimbledon?
📅 When is Day 11 of Wimbledon? / Thursday, 7th July 2022 from 1:30pm
🏟 Where is Day 11 of Wimbledon? / All England Tennis Club (London)
📺 What TV channel is Day 11 of Wimbledon on? / BBC One/BBC Two